|Detalhes do Download|
|Identificação De Cenários Alternativos Para As Áreas De Pastagens Cultivadas No Estado De Goiás A Partir De Um Modelo De Programação Linear|
Autoria: Maria Socorro Duarte da Silva Couto
Coautor: Laerte Guimarães Ferreira, et. al
Abstract: Cattle ranching plays an important role in the Brazilian economy, with pasturelands occupying approximately 30% OF the total country area. The environmental impacts associated with this activity are equally signifi cant. Among others, it is estimated that the whole cattle industry is responsible for about 50% of the national emissions of greenhouse gases. Within this context, and in pursuit of optimizing, in a sustainable way, the occupation of these lands, considered important reserves for agricultural expansion, in this work we present a mathematical model, which, based on a wide set of physical, biophysical, and socioeconomic attributes, aims at identifying, in a spatially consistent manner, different land use alternatives for areas currently occupied with cultivated pastures. The optimum standard solution found in this preliminary evaluation, focused in the State of Goiás (Cerrado biome core region), indicated that, while 77% of the pasture area should remain as it is, with the same occupation rates, 12% of the existent pastures should be put apart for restoration of the natural environments, 4% should be used for expansion of sugarcane plantations, and 7% should be submitted to increased cattle occupation. Our expectation is that the linear approach proposed in this work can be applied to different regions, datasets, scenarios and scales of analysis. Regardless of the precision of possible solutions, which strongly depend on the chosen attributes and consistency of the available datasets, these certainly can subsidize public policies aiming at improved territorial and environmental governance of remnant natural landscapes, which is particularly the case of the threatened Cerrado biome.